(National Review) The year 2024 is looking to be a very important year for the pro-life movement. The second full year since the Dobbs decision will pose both challenges and opportunities for pro-lifers. At the federal level, Republican members of Congress will again have to fight to save the Hyde amendment. They will also attempt to thwart efforts by the FDA under the Biden administration to make chemical-abortion pills more available. Of course, a victory by a pro-life presidential candidate in November could measurably advance a culture of life through both executive-branch appointments and judicial nominations.
However, some of the most important political activity will take place at the state level in 2024. A recent article from the Catholic News Agency indicates that supporters of legal abortion are planning on running direct-democracy campaigns in as many as twelve states in the 2024 election cycle. It is hardly a secret that pro-lifers have not fared well in statewide direct-democracy campaigns since the Dobbs decision. However, 2024 may provide some unique and important opportunities for pro-life victories.
This is for a couple reasons. First, supporters of legal abortion are targeting Florida. Specifically, they are seeking to place a proposition on the Florida ballot that would add a right to abortion before “viability” to the state’s constitution. However, because of the way the Florida’s constitution is written, they will have to obtain 60 percent of the vote to prevail. Recent pro-abortion ballot propositions have never received more than 60 percent support in Michigan, Ohio, and other states where pro-lifers mounted aggressive opposition campaigns.
Second, supporters of legal abortion are attempting to use direct democracy to place legal abortion in the constitutions of some very red states, including Missouri, South Dakota, Arkansas, and Nebraska. These are all states where Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden by more than 15 percentage points in 2020. The political terrain there may be more favorable to pro-lifers than in Ohio, where President Trump defeated Joe Biden by just over eight percentage points. Supporters of legal abortion are aware of this. In fact, there is significant internal infighting among supporters of legal abortion in both Missouri and Arkansas. This is because some feel that a ballot proposition explicitly legalizing mid- and late-term abortions would be rejected by voters.
This year, it is important that pro-lifers notch some direct-democracy victories in conservative states. Supporters of legal abortion frequently tout their success in recent direct-democracy campaigns. However, none of these election victories yet have succeeded in striking down a strong post-Dobbs pro-life law. However, in 2024 that could change. Some strong pro-life laws in conservative states will likely be threatened by pro-abortion direct-democracy campaigns. With many important federal and state elections taking place in 2024, pro-lifers will have to raise substantial resources and make shrewd strategic choices. All hands have to be on deck, as thousands of innocent lives are literally at stake this election cycle.
Editor’s Note: This article was published at National Review and is reprinted here with permission.
