Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this guest post are those of the guest author.
Last week, the Ohio Secretary of State announced that an amendment to place abortion rights in the state constitution received enough signatures to appear on the November ballot. Much of the media coverage about this Ohio ballot measure has cited a recent USA Today/Suffolk University survey, which purportedly shows that 58 percent of likely Ohio voters support a constitutional amendment that would guarantee abortion rights. This poll has been cited by a number of mainstream media outlets including The New York Times, The Hill, and Politico.
Methodologically, there are some legitimate concerns about this poll.
First, the sample size of 500 likely Ohio voters is relatively small which raises concerns about its accuracy. Second, statewide polls conducted by national pollsters or out-of-state polling firms can sometimes be inaccurate. Most importantly, surveys on ballot measures that are conducted months before the election tend to be poor predictors of election results. Indeed, a body of political science research shows that ballot propositions tend to lose public support as the election draws near.
Polling on Michigan’s Proposal 3, which recently placed legal abortion in Michigan’s state constitution, is instructive. Three polls conducted in September 2022 all showed opposition to Proposal 3 ranging from 24 percent to 27 percent. However, two polls conducted in November 2022 both showed that about 45 percent of Michigan voters opposed Proposal 3. These two polls were fairly accurate as on November 8, 2022, Proposal 3 was opposed by just over 43 percent of Michigan voters. In short, opponents of Michigan’s Proposal 3 gained nearly 20 percentage points in a little more than a month.
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A similar gain by opponents of Ohio’s abortion amendment would put pro-lifers within striking distance of victory.
On August 8th, Ohio voters will have the opportunity to vote on Issue 1 — which would require that constitutional amendments receive the support of 60 percent of voters. Pro-life groups have invested heavily in this campaign. If successful, pro-lifers would have a much easier path to victory in November. In a politically competitive state in Ohio, it would be difficult for supporters of legal abortion to obtain 60 percent of the vote to amend the state constitution.
However, even if Issue 1 fails, pro-lifers in Ohio and across the country should not despair. Research shows that ballot propositions lose public support as the election drawn near.
Buckeye state pro-lifers certainly have plenty of work to do between now and November. However, victory is still within reach.
Michael J. New is an Assistant Professor of Practice at The Catholic University of America and a Senior Associate Scholar at the Charlotte Lozier Institute. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_J_New.
