Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this guest post are solely those of the guest author.
This Tuesday, Ohio voters will have the opportunity to vote on Issue 1, a ballot proposition that would require constitutional amendments receive the support of 60 percent of voters in order to take effect. Issue 1 is of particular importance to Ohio pro-lifers because in November, a constitutional amendment will be on the ballot that would place abortion rights in Ohio’s constitution. If Issue 1 passes, there is less likelihood that the abortion amendment will pass in November.
On Thursday, Ohio Northern University released the results of online statewide poll of 675 registered voters. Going into the final weekend before the election, the poll indicates that Issue 1 enjoys a slight lead – with 42.4 percent supporting Issue 1 and 41.0 percent in opposition.
This poll is likely more accurate than the recent Suffolk University/USA Today phone poll which showed Issue 1 losing by a 31 point margin. This is for a couple reasons. First, Ohio Northern University has more experience polling Ohio voters. Second, online polls like the ONU poll tend to be more accurate than phone polls – which is the type of poll conducted Suffolk University/USA Today. That is because many people do not answer phone calls from numbers they do not recognize.
That said, even though Issue 1 has a slight lead, research from previous direct democracy campaigns show that undecided voters usually break against ballot propositions.
The recent Ohio Northern University poll also shows November’s abortion amendment losing some ground. It has the support of only 53.8 percent of Ohio voters. Considering that ballot propositions usually lose support as the election draws near, supporters of the abortion amendment would be hard pressed to obtain 60 percent of the vote, should Issue 1 pass.
Overall, these upcoming elections in Ohio will have national implications. Since the Supreme Court’s June 2022 Dobbs decision, supporters of legal abortion have turned to direct democracy to make abortion policy more permissive. During the 2022 election cycle, supporters of legal abortion had success with direct democracy campaigns in states that were carried by Joe Biden including California, Vermont, and Michigan.
However, this year, supporters of legal abortion are trying to use direct democracy in Ohio — a state that Donald Trump comfortably carried twice. If they succeed, they will doubtless try to use direct democracy to expand access to abortion in other red states that have passed strong pro-life laws. Conversely, a solid pro-life victory in Ohio this year would send a clear statement that to supporters of legal abortion that direct democracy is a poor strategy for repealing pro-life laws in red states.
Michael J. New is an Assistant Professor of Practice at The Catholic University of America and a Senior Associate Scholar at the Charlotte Lozier Institute. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_J_New.
